Has a chart and stuck to it4
Analysis
What sits under the headline number: how flights and hotels differ, whether booking earlier helps, whether published award charts match real prices, how often a price is simply missing, and how the measured values compare with TPG and NerdWallet. Points work like a private currency, so several sections are standard questions about money: inflation, exchange rates, pegs and warning before a change. Every chart has its numbers one click below it.
Airline points fell 4.5%; hotel points fell 14.6%
The value of a point for flights and for hotels, starting at 100 in Aug.
Chart 1. Value of a point, flights vs hotels · Aug = 100
All programsAirlinesHotels
- Sep 4, 2026. IHG One Rewards → Air India Maharaja Club: partner added; collection rule 10 clarified.
- Sep 9, 2026. Hyatt World of Hyatt + Delta Skymiles: partner added.
- Sep 15, 2026. Wyndham Rewards: policy change takes effect.
- Oct 1, 2026. Chase UR → Hyatt World of Hyatt: transfer ratio change takes effect.
- Oct 15, 2026. Hyatt World of Hyatt: policy change.
- Dec 17, 2026. Korean Air SKYPASS: policy change takes effect.
- Dec 31, 2026. Hyatt World of Hyatt + American AAdvantage: partner removed takes effect.
- Jan 1, 2027. Hyatt World of Hyatt + Bilt: transfer ratio change takes effect.
Show the numbers as a table
| Month | All | Airlines | Hotels |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 |
| Sep | 103.4 | 109.5 | 90.4 |
| Oct | 92.4 | 95.5 | 85.4 |
Who moved, and which way
Each cell is one program’s change from one month to the next, on the same trips. Switch between the value of a point, the price in points and the price in cash. Comparing the last two shows pass-through: whether a program’s points prices follow its cash prices or move on their own. A new column is added every month.
Chart 2. Change by program and month
Point worth lessNo changePoint worth more
Aug → Sep
Sep → Oct
All programs
+3.4%
−10.7%
Booking about six months ahead bought 4.9% more per point
Every trip is checked about 60 days before travel and about 180 days before. Across 228 pairs, the difference came from the price in points, not the cash price. Charging different prices for the same product depending on when you buy is well studied for cash fares; this shows it in the points currency too.
| Price in points, ~180 vs ~60 days ahead | −6.5%63 cheaper, 42 more expensive, 124 the same |
|---|---|
| Cash price | −2.4%across 252 pairs |
| Value of a point | +4.9%90 worth more, 87 worth less |
Chart 3. Median value of a point, ~60 vs ~180 days ahead · all months combined, log scale
Booked ~60 days aheadBooked ~180 days aheadSorted by how much more a point bought further ahead.
0.5¢1¢2¢5¢
+70%
+56%
+52%
+50%
+37%
+13%
+9%
+8%
+8%
+5%
+4%
+3%
+1%
+0%
+0%
−0%
−1%
−2%
−2%
−4%
−4%
−9%
−9%
−10%
−12%
−17%
−19%
The percentage on each row is the difference between the two medians drawn. The table adds the same-trip comparison: each trip at ~180 days against itself at ~60 days, averaged (geometric mean). One trip with a very different price at the two distances can move that average far from the medians, which is why both are shown.
Show the numbers as a table
| Program | ~60 days | ~180 days | Difference | Same trip, both distances | Pairs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Air Canada Aeroplan | 1.15¢ | 1.19¢ | +3.4% | −0.8% | 9 |
| Air India Maharaja Club | 1.71¢ | 2.57¢ | +50.1% | +28.5% | 9 |
| American AAdvantage | 1.19¢ | 1.86¢ | +55.7% | +28.0% | 9 |
| ANA Mileage Club | 7.19¢ | 7.81¢ | +8.6% | +2.2% | 9 |
| Atmos Rewards | 1.86¢ | 2.11¢ | +13.3% | −6.3% | 9 |
| British Airways Club | 1.16¢ | 0.95¢ | −17.4% | −10.1% | 4 |
| Cathay Asia Miles | 3.54¢ | 3.40¢ | −3.9% | −0.3% | 5 |
| China Southern Sky Pearl | 1.03¢ | 1.07¢ | +4.2% | +9.3% | 5 |
| Delta SkyMiles | 1.16¢ | 1.14¢ | −2.1% | −1.7% | 9 |
| Emirates Skywards | 2.31¢ | 2.31¢ | 0.0% | +16.9% | 6 |
| Ethiopian ShebaMiles | 4.67¢ | 3.79¢ | −18.9% | −8.1% | 6 |
| Etihad Guest | 0.83¢ | 1.27¢ | +51.7% | +49.5% | 9 |
| Korean Air SKYPASS | 1.94¢ | 1.76¢ | −9.1% | −6.6% | 6 |
| LATAM Pass | 1.21¢ | 1.21¢ | 0.0% | +2.3% | 9 |
| Qantas Frequent Flyer | 0.89¢ | 0.88¢ | −2.1% | −11.7% | 9 |
| SAS EuroBonus | 0.66¢ | 0.65¢ | −0.4% | +36.2% | 9 |
| Singapore KrisFlyer | 2.09¢ | 2.11¢ | +0.6% | +5.3% | 9 |
| Turkish Miles and Smiles | 1.21¢ | 2.05¢ | +69.8% | +3.1% | 9 |
| United MileagePlus | 1.29¢ | 1.40¢ | +8.3% | +8.0% | 9 |
| Virgin Atlantic Flying Club | 2.00¢ | 1.81¢ | −9.6% | −14.7% | 9 |
| Choice Privileges | 0.76¢ | 1.03¢ | +36.8% | +15.8% | 12 |
| Hilton Honors | 0.56¢ | 0.49¢ | −11.7% | 0.0% | 9 |
| IHG One Rewards | 0.57¢ | 0.54¢ | −4.3% | −6.3% | 10 |
| Marriott Bonvoy | 0.77¢ | 0.81¢ | +5.0% | +4.8% | 12 |
| Radisson Rewards | 0.26¢ | 0.26¢ | −1.2% | −1.7% | 12 |
| World of Hyatt | 1.53¢ | 1.39¢ | −9.3% | −23.8% | 5 |
| Wyndham Rewards | 0.84¢ | 0.91¢ | +7.7% | +14.4% | 10 |
8 of 12 programs with a published chart still charged different prices
Rows are what a program publishes. Columns are what happened: did the price in points for the same trip change between checks? The shaded cells are where the two disagree. A chart works like a currency peg, a public promise of a fixed price, so this tests whether the peg held.
Chart 4. Published award charts vs observed prices
Some movement is allowed by the chart’s own fine print, such as “from” prices or peak seasons. But a chart that only sets a minimum doesn’t tell you what you’ll pay.
Show the numbers as a table
| Program | Publishes a chart | Items that changed | Prices seen | Listed pricing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Air Canada Aeroplan | Yes | 3/3 | 18 | Variable |
| Air India Maharaja Club | Yes | 0/3 | 18 | Fixed |
| American AAdvantage | No | 3/3 | 18 | Variable |
| ANA Mileage Club | Yes | 3/3 | 18 | Variable |
| Atmos Rewards | Yes | 3/3 | 18 | Variable |
| British Airways Club | No | 0/3 | 10 | Fixed |
| Cathay Asia Miles | Unclear | 0/3 | 12 | Fixed |
| China Southern Sky Pearl | Yes | 0/3 | 13 | Fixed |
| Delta SkyMiles | No | 2/3 | 18 | Variable |
| Emirates Skywards | No | 2/3 | 15 | Variable |
| Ethiopian ShebaMiles | Unclear | 1/3 | 13 | Variable |
| Etihad Guest | Unclear | 2/3 | 18 | Variable |
| Korean Air SKYPASS | Yes | 0/3 | 12 | Fixed |
| LATAM Pass | No | 3/3 | 18 | Variable |
| Qantas Frequent Flyer | Yes | 3/3 | 18 | Variable |
| SAS EuroBonus | Yes | 3/3 | 18 | Variable |
| Singapore KrisFlyer | Yes | 0/3 | 18 | Fixed |
| Turkish Miles and Smiles | Yes | 3/3 | 18 | Variable |
| United MileagePlus | No | 3/3 | 18 | Variable |
| Virgin Atlantic Flying Club | No | 3/3 | 18 | Variable |
| Choice Privileges | No | 1/4 | 24 | Variable |
| Hilton Honors | No | 2/4 | 19 | Fixed |
| IHG One Rewards | No | 4/4 | 22 | Variable |
| Marriott Bonvoy | No | 4/4 | 24 | Variable |
| Radisson Rewards | No | 4/4 | 24 | Variable |
| World of Hyatt | Yes | 2/4 | 13 | Variable |
| Wyndham Rewards | Yes | 4/4 | 22 | Fixed |
More than one in five business-class searches found no award seat
A missing award has no price, so it never shows up in an average. Here every check is a square: one per trip, per month, per booking distance. Economists call this rationing: the listed price stays the same, but less can be bought at it.
| Economy: searches with no award price | 6 of 2403% of searches |
|---|---|
| Business: searches with no award price | 27 of 12023% of searches |
| Hotel night: searches with no award price | 20 of 16812% of searches |
Chart 5. What each search returned
Priced in points and cashNo award seat or roomSold out or no flightWebsite wouldn’t loadNo cash price
Aug · 60d
Aug · 180d
Sep · 60d
Sep · 180d
Oct · 60d
Oct · 180d
Show the numbers as a table
| Program | Aug · 60d | Aug · 180d | Sep · 60d | Sep · 180d | Oct · 60d | Oct · 180d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Air Canada Aeroplan | 3 of 3 priced | 3 of 3 priced | 3 of 3 priced | 3 of 3 priced | 3 of 3 priced | 3 of 3 priced |
| Air India Maharaja Club | 3 of 3 priced | 3 of 3 priced | 3 of 3 priced | 3 of 3 priced | 3 of 3 priced | 3 of 3 priced |
| American AAdvantage | 3 of 3 priced | 3 of 3 priced | 3 of 3 priced | 3 of 3 priced | 3 of 3 priced | 3 of 3 priced |
| ANA Mileage Club | 3 of 3 priced | 3 of 3 priced | 3 of 3 priced | 3 of 3 priced | 3 of 3 priced | 3 of 3 priced |
| Atmos Rewards | 3 of 3 priced | 3 of 3 priced | 3 of 3 priced | 3 of 3 priced | 3 of 3 priced | 3 of 3 priced |
| British Airways Club | 1 of 3 priced | 2 of 3 priced | 3 of 3 priced | 2 of 3 priced | 1 of 3 priced | 1 of 3 priced |
| Cathay Asia Miles | 2 of 3 priced | 1 of 3 priced | 2 of 3 priced | 2 of 3 priced | 2 of 3 priced | 3 of 3 priced |
| China Southern Sky Pearl | 2 of 3 priced | 2 of 3 priced | 3 of 3 priced | 2 of 3 priced | 3 of 3 priced | 1 of 3 priced |
| Delta SkyMiles | 3 of 3 priced | 3 of 3 priced | 3 of 3 priced | 3 of 3 priced | 3 of 3 priced | 3 of 3 priced |
| Emirates Skywards | 3 of 3 priced | 2 of 3 priced | 2 of 3 priced | 3 of 3 priced | 2 of 3 priced | 3 of 3 priced |
| Ethiopian ShebaMiles | 2 of 3 priced | 2 of 3 priced | 2 of 3 priced | 2 of 3 priced | 2 of 3 priced | 3 of 3 priced |
| Etihad Guest | 3 of 3 priced | 3 of 3 priced | 3 of 3 priced | 3 of 3 priced | 3 of 3 priced | 3 of 3 priced |
| Korean Air SKYPASS | 2 of 3 priced | 2 of 3 priced | 2 of 3 priced | 2 of 3 priced | 2 of 3 priced | 2 of 3 priced |
| LATAM Pass | 3 of 3 priced | 3 of 3 priced | 3 of 3 priced | 3 of 3 priced | 3 of 3 priced | 3 of 3 priced |
| Qantas Frequent Flyer | 3 of 3 priced | 3 of 3 priced | 3 of 3 priced | 3 of 3 priced | 3 of 3 priced | 3 of 3 priced |
| SAS EuroBonus | 3 of 3 priced | 3 of 3 priced | 3 of 3 priced | 3 of 3 priced | 3 of 3 priced | 3 of 3 priced |
| Singapore KrisFlyer | 3 of 3 priced | 3 of 3 priced | 3 of 3 priced | 3 of 3 priced | 3 of 3 priced | 3 of 3 priced |
| Turkish Miles and Smiles | 3 of 3 priced | 3 of 3 priced | 3 of 3 priced | 3 of 3 priced | 3 of 3 priced | 3 of 3 priced |
| United MileagePlus | 3 of 3 priced | 3 of 3 priced | 3 of 3 priced | 3 of 3 priced | 3 of 3 priced | 3 of 3 priced |
| Virgin Atlantic Flying Club | 3 of 3 priced | 3 of 3 priced | 3 of 3 priced | 3 of 3 priced | 3 of 3 priced | 3 of 3 priced |
| Choice Privileges | 4 of 4 priced | 4 of 4 priced | 4 of 4 priced | 4 of 4 priced | 4 of 4 priced | 4 of 4 priced |
| Hilton Honors | 4 of 4 priced | 3 of 4 priced | 3 of 4 priced | 3 of 4 priced | 3 of 4 priced | 3 of 4 priced |
| IHG One Rewards | 3 of 4 priced | 4 of 4 priced | 3 of 4 priced | 4 of 4 priced | 4 of 4 priced | 4 of 4 priced |
| Marriott Bonvoy | 4 of 4 priced | 4 of 4 priced | 4 of 4 priced | 4 of 4 priced | 4 of 4 priced | 4 of 4 priced |
| Radisson Rewards | 4 of 4 priced | 4 of 4 priced | 4 of 4 priced | 4 of 4 priced | 4 of 4 priced | 4 of 4 priced |
| World of Hyatt | 3 of 4 priced | 4 of 4 priced | 2 of 4 priced | 2 of 4 priced | 1 of 4 priced | 0 of 4 priced |
| Wyndham Rewards | 4 of 4 priced | 3 of 4 priced | 3 of 4 priced | 4 of 4 priced | 4 of 4 priced | 4 of 4 priced |
43% of prices in points are a multiple of 5,000
Fixed charts produce round numbers. Prices like 71,632 points are calculated from the cash fare. Among programs that publish a chart, 50% of prices were a multiple of 5,000; among those that don’t, 38%. Behavioral economists study the same choice in cash prices, where the best-known case is prices ending in 99.
Chart 6. How round is each program’s price in points? · 475 prices
Multiple of 5,000Of 1,000Of 500Of 100Not a round number
100%
100%
100%
100%
94%
75%
73%
67%
64%
61%
60%
56%
50%
44%
39%
33%
33%
23%
22%
17%
17%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
Show the numbers as a table
| Program | ×5,000 | ×1,000 | ×500 | ×100 | Other | Prices |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| China Southern Sky Pearl | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13 |
| Hilton Honors | 19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19 |
| Korean Air SKYPASS | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12 |
| World of Hyatt | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13 |
| Turkish Miles and Smiles | 17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18 |
| Choice Privileges | 18 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 24 |
| Emirates Skywards | 11 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15 |
| Air India Maharaja Club | 12 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18 |
| Wyndham Rewards | 14 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 22 |
| United MileagePlus | 11 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 18 |
| British Airways Club | 6 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 |
| Etihad Guest | 10 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 18 |
| Cathay Asia Miles | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12 |
| Atmos Rewards | 8 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 18 |
| Virgin Atlantic Flying Club | 7 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 18 |
| American AAdvantage | 6 | 2 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 18 |
| ANA Mileage Club | 6 | 0 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 18 |
| IHG One Rewards | 5 | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 22 |
| SAS EuroBonus | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 18 |
| Air Canada Aeroplan | 3 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 0 | 18 |
| Marriott Bonvoy | 4 | 17 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 24 |
| Delta SkyMiles | 0 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 0 | 18 |
| Ethiopian ShebaMiles | 0 | 8 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 13 |
| LATAM Pass | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 18 |
| Qantas Frequent Flyer | 0 | 5 | 0 | 13 | 0 | 18 |
| Radisson Rewards | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 24 | 24 |
| Singapore KrisFlyer | 0 | 12 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 18 |
Median warning before a change: 92 days
10 announced changes so far, 9 with a date they take effect. 3 took effect the same day they were announced; the longest gave 282 days. Central banks announce changes ahead of time so people can plan, which economists call forward guidance; this is the loyalty-program version.
Chart 7. From announcement to effect
Bad for membersGood for membersUnclearToday
JunJulAugSepOctNovDecJan ’27FebMarAprMayJun
Show the numbers as a table
| Program | Announced | Effective | Days’ notice | For members |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hyatt World of Hyatt | Oct 15, 2026 | Oct 15, 2026 | 0 | Positive |
| Hyatt World of Hyatt + Bilt | Oct 1, 2026 | Jan 1, 2027 | 92 | Negative |
| Korean Air SKYPASS | Sep 15, 2026 | Dec 17, 2026 | 93 | Unclear |
| Hyatt World of Hyatt + Delta Skymiles | Sep 9, 2026 | — | — | Positive |
| Hyatt World of Hyatt + American AAdvantage | Sep 9, 2026 | Dec 31, 2026 | 113 | Negative |
| IHG One Rewards -> Air India Maharaja Club | Sep 4, 2026 | Sep 4, 2026 | 0 | Positive |
| Emirates Skywards | Aug 23, 2026 | Jun 1, 2027 | 282 | Negative |
| Etihad Guest | Aug 11, 2026 | Aug 11, 2026 | 0 | Positive |
| Wyndham Rewards | Jun 24, 2026 | Sep 15, 2026 | 83 | Unclear |
| Chase UR -> Hyatt World of Hyatt | Jun 10, 2026 | Oct 1, 2026 | 113 | Negative |
Read every change and its predicted effect · Compare with TPG and NerdWallet
Before and after a change: 4 announced changes have a month on each side
When a program announces a change, did its prices actually move? For each change with a date it took effect, I compare the last month checked before that date with the first month after it, on the same trips, and set it against all 27 programs over the same two months. A move the rest of the index doesn’t share points to the change; a move everyone shares doesn’t. With one month on each side, this is a first look, not proof: one month can also carry ordinary ups and downs.
Chart 8. Value of a point before and after each change · same trips, last month before vs first month after
- Hyatt World of Hyatt: policy changeTook effect Oct 15, 2026. Compared: September 2026 (checked Sep 4–Sep 10) with October 2026 (checked Oct 16–Oct 21).World of Hyatt launched free online member-to-member points transfers at 1:1, replacing the emailed PDF form, with a 1,000-point minimum, six outgoing transfers and 525,000 points sent/received per calendar year.
World of Hyatt: value of a point −17.1% 1 trip priced in both months, so treat it as one example Price in points · cash price 0.0% · −17.1% All programs, same months −10.7% against all programs: −7.2% No price in points changed: 2 of 2 trips cost the same before and after.
- Chase UR → Hyatt World of Hyatt: transfer ratioTook effect Oct 1, 2026, announced Jun 10, 2026. Compared: September 2026 (checked Sep 4–Sep 10) with October 2026 (checked Oct 16–Oct 21).Chase cuts the Ultimate Rewards to World of Hyatt transfer ratio from 1:1 to 4:3 for many premium cards, while Sapphire Reserve cards keep 1:1.
World of Hyatt: value of a point −17.1% 1 trip priced in both months, so treat it as one example Price in points · cash price 0.0% · −17.1% All programs, same months −10.7% against all programs: −7.2% No price in points changed: 2 of 2 trips cost the same before and after.
For Chase UR cards other than the Sapphire Reserve, one card point now buys 0.75 World of Hyatt points instead of 1. That alone cuts what a card point buys there by 25%, whatever the program’s own prices do.
- Wyndham Rewards: policy changeTook effect Sep 15, 2026, announced Jun 24, 2026. Compared: September 2026 (checked Sep 4–Sep 10) with October 2026 (checked Oct 16–Oct 21).Replaced 7,500 point tier with 5000, and added a premium 45k tier
Wyndham Rewards: value of a point −15.7% 7 trips priced in both months Price in points · cash price +15.0% · −3.0% All programs, same months −10.7% against all programs: −5.6% Prices in points that changed: Ramada by Wyndham Istanbul Old City at ~60 days, 7,500 → 30,000 (+300%); Ramada by Wyndham Istanbul Old City at ~180 days, 7,500 → 30,000 (+300%); Wyndham Grand Rio Mar Puerto Rico at ~180 days, 30,000 → 45,000 (+50%); Days Inn by Wyndham Northwest Indianapolis at ~60 days, 7,500 → 5,000 (−33%); Days Inn by Wyndham Northwest Indianapolis at ~180 days, 7,500 → 5,000 (−33%); Wyndham Grand Athens at ~60 days, 30,000 → 15,000 (−50%); Wyndham Grand Athens at ~180 days, 30,000 → 15,000 (−50%). None held.
- IHG One Rewards → Air India Maharaja Club: partner addedTook effect Sep 4, 2026. Compared: August 2026 (checked Aug 16–Aug 23) with September 2026 (checked Sep 4–Sep 10).IHG One Rewards and Air India Maharaja Club launched a partnership: Maharaja Club members earn 2 points/USD at most IHG brands; IHG points convert one-way to Maharaja Points at 1,000:200 (5:1).
IHG One Rewards: value of a point +2.0% 6 trips priced in both months Price in points · cash price −5.6% · +3.0% All programs, same months +3.4% against all programs: −1.4% Prices in points that changed: Crowne Plaza Amsterdam - South by IHG at ~180 days, 63,000 → 61,000 (−3%); InterContinental Phuket Resort at ~180 days, 98,000 → 90,000 (−8%); Holiday Inn Express Manchester Airport at ~60 days, 20,000 → 22,000 (+10%); Holiday Inn Express Manchester Airport at ~180 days, 24,000 → 19,000 (−21%); Regent Hong Kong at ~60 days, 116,000 → 121,000 (+4%); Regent Hong Kong at ~180 days, 105,000 → 92,000 (−12%). None held.
Air India Maharaja Club: value of a point +3.4% 6 trips priced in both months Price in points · cash price 0.0% · +3.4% All programs, same months +3.4% against all programs: 0.0% No price in points changed: 6 of 6 trips cost the same before and after.
“Against all programs” divides the program’s change by the whole index’s change over the same two months. Trips count once per booking distance. A change to partners or account rules isn’t expected to move prices; it’s listed so nothing is left out. Dates and details are in events.xlsx.
Show the numbers as a table
| Change | Took effect | Months compared | Program | Value of a point | Price in points | All programs | Against all programs | Trips |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hyatt World of Hyatt | Oct 15, 2026 | Sep → Oct | World of Hyatt | −17.1% | 0.0% | −10.7% | −7.2% | 1 |
| Chase UR → Hyatt World of Hyatt | Oct 1, 2026 | Sep → Oct | World of Hyatt | −17.1% | 0.0% | −10.7% | −7.2% | 1 |
| Wyndham Rewards | Sep 15, 2026 | Sep → Oct | Wyndham Rewards | −15.7% | +15.0% | −10.7% | −5.6% | 7 |
| IHG One Rewards → Air India Maharaja Club | Sep 4, 2026 | Aug → Sep | IHG One Rewards | +2.0% | −5.6% | +3.4% | −1.4% | 6 |
| IHG One Rewards → Air India Maharaja Club | Sep 4, 2026 | Aug → Sep | Air India Maharaja Club | +3.4% | 0.0% | +3.4% | 0.0% | 6 |
Waiting for a month after the change: Korean Air SKYPASS (Dec 17, 2026); Hyatt World of Hyatt + American AAdvantage (Dec 31, 2026); Hyatt World of Hyatt + Bilt (Jan 1, 2027); Emirates Skywards (Jun 1, 2027). Each is tested in the first monthly round after that date.
Took effect before collection began, so there’s no month before to compare: Etihad Guest (Aug 11, 2026).
No date it takes effect has been announced: Hyatt World of Hyatt + Delta Skymiles.
My middle check was above TPG’s value for 14 of 20 programs
The Points Guy and NerdWallet each publish one value per program, built partly from real-world prices that they don’t publish. This index records what points bought on fixed searches, so it shows a range. It was above NerdWallet’s value for 11 of 15. Neither publishes a value for 7 programs: Ethiopian ShebaMiles, Air India Maharaja Club, Korean Air SKYPASS, LATAM Pass, China Southern Sky Pearl, SAS EuroBonus, Radisson Rewards.
The Points Guy · 2026-10One value per point, updated monthly and based partly on real redemption data. It leans toward the good redemptions you can find if you know where to look.Source
NerdWallet · 2026-10-02A baseline from comparing cash and award prices on sample trips. Meant as a floor you can beat, not a best case.Source
This indexThe same trips every month, one-way, economy and business, two booking distances, each priced against the program’s own cash fare.How it’s measured
Chart 9. Every program: what I observed vs published values · sorted by my middle check
Each checkMiddle checkTPGNerdWalletCents per point.
0.2¢0.5¢1¢2¢5¢10¢
Values aren’t strictly comparable between programs, because each is measured against its own cash prices. Programs that price one-way cash tickets high, like ANA and Cathay, sit far to the right.
Show the numbers as a table
| Program | My middle check | Checks | TPG | Difference | NerdWallet | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA Mileage Club | 7.50¢ | 18 | 1.40¢ | +436% | — | — |
| Ethiopian ShebaMiles | 4.04¢ | 13 | — | — | — | — |
| Cathay Asia Miles | 3.54¢ | 12 | 1.30¢ | +172% | — | — |
| Air India Maharaja Club | 2.34¢ | 18 | — | — | — | — |
| Emirates Skywards | 2.31¢ | 15 | 1.20¢ | +92% | 1.00¢ | +131% |
| Singapore KrisFlyer | 2.10¢ | 18 | 1.30¢ | +61% | — | — |
| Turkish Miles and Smiles | 2.05¢ | 18 | 1.10¢ | +86% | 0.80¢ | +156% |
| Atmos Rewards | 1.96¢ | 18 | 1.55¢ | +26% | 1.40¢ | +40% |
| Virgin Atlantic Flying Club | 1.82¢ | 18 | 1.50¢ | +21% | 0.80¢ | +127% |
| Korean Air SKYPASS | 1.80¢ | 12 | — | — | — | — |
| American AAdvantage | 1.79¢ | 18 | 1.45¢ | +23% | 1.70¢ | +5% |
| World of Hyatt | 1.45¢ | 12 | 1.65¢ | −12% | 1.80¢ | −19% |
| United MileagePlus | 1.34¢ | 18 | 1.20¢ | +12% | 1.20¢ | +12% |
| Etihad Guest | 1.24¢ | 18 | 1.20¢ | +3% | — | — |
| LATAM Pass | 1.21¢ | 18 | — | — | — | — |
| Air Canada Aeroplan | 1.16¢ | 18 | 1.50¢ | −23% | 1.10¢ | +5% |
| Delta SkyMiles | 1.15¢ | 18 | 1.20¢ | −4% | 1.20¢ | −4% |
| China Southern Sky Pearl | 1.07¢ | 13 | — | — | — | — |
| British Airways Club | 1.06¢ | 10 | 1.40¢ | −24% | 1.20¢ | −12% |
| Qantas Frequent Flyer | 0.89¢ | 18 | 1.25¢ | −29% | — | — |
| Wyndham Rewards | 0.87¢ | 22 | 0.55¢ | +59% | 0.70¢ | +25% |
| Choice Privileges | 0.85¢ | 24 | 0.85¢ | +0% | 0.80¢ | +6% |
| Marriott Bonvoy | 0.79¢ | 24 | 0.75¢ | +5% | 0.70¢ | +13% |
| SAS EuroBonus | 0.66¢ | 18 | — | — | — | — |
| IHG One Rewards | 0.56¢ | 22 | 0.60¢ | −7% | 0.60¢ | −7% |
| Hilton Honors | 0.51¢ | 19 | 0.40¢ | +27% | 0.40¢ | +27% |
| Radisson Rewards | 0.26¢ | 24 | — | — | — | — |
5 card programs connect to 20 of the programs in this index
Credit card points can be moved into airline and hotel programs, so a change at one program reaches every card that transfers to it. A transfer ratio is an exchange rate between two currencies, and cutting it devalues the card’s points against that partner. Each line joins a card program to a partner; thicker lines mean one card point bought more there. Hover a card or a program to isolate it.
Chart 10. Card transfer partners · line width = transfer ratio × middle value of a point
AirlineHotel
Ratios are in transfer_ratios.xlsx. To see what a balance bought at each partner, use the card transfer calculator.
Show the numbers as a table
| Card | Program | Ratio | Cents per card point (middle check) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chase UR | SQ | 1:1 | 2.10 |
| Chase UR | VS | 1:1 | 1.82 |
| Chase UR | HYT | 1:1 | 1.45 |
| Chase UR | UA | 1:1 | 1.34 |
| Chase UR | AC | 1:1 | 1.16 |
| Chase UR | BA | 1:1 | 1.06 |
| Chase UR | WYN | 1:1 | 0.87 |
| Chase UR | MAR | 1:1 | 0.79 |
| Chase UR | IHG | 1:1 | 0.56 |
| Amex MR | NH | 1:1 | 7.50 |
| Amex MR | CX | 5:4 | 2.83 |
| Amex MR | SQ | 1:1 | 2.10 |
| Amex MR | EK | 5:4 | 1.85 |
| Amex MR | VS | 1:1 | 1.82 |
| Amex MR | AC | 1:1 | 1.16 |
| Amex MR | DL | 1:1 | 1.15 |
| Amex MR | BA | 1:1 | 1.06 |
| Amex MR | HIL | 1:2 | 1.01 |
| Amex MR | QF | 1:1 | 0.89 |
| Amex MR | CHO | 1:1 | 0.85 |
| Amex MR | MAR | 1:1 | 0.79 |
| Citi ThankYou | CX | 1:1 | 3.54 |
| Citi ThankYou | SQ | 1:1 | 2.10 |
| Citi ThankYou | TK | 1:1 | 2.05 |
| Citi ThankYou | EK | 5:4 | 1.85 |
| Citi ThankYou | VS | 1:1 | 1.82 |
| Citi ThankYou | AA | 1:1 | 1.79 |
| Citi ThankYou | CHO | 2:3 | 1.28 |
| Citi ThankYou | EY | 1:1 | 1.24 |
| Citi ThankYou | QF | 1:1 | 0.89 |
| Citi ThankYou | WYN | 1:1 | 0.87 |
| Capital One | CX | 1:1 | 3.54 |
| Capital One | SQ | 1:1 | 2.10 |
| Capital One | TK | 1:1 | 2.05 |
| Capital One | EK | 4:3 | 1.73 |
| Capital One | EY | 1:1 | 1.24 |
| Capital One | AC | 1:1 | 1.16 |
| Capital One | BA | 1:1 | 1.06 |
| Capital One | QF | 1:1 | 0.89 |
| Capital One | WYN | 1:1 | 0.87 |
| Capital One | CHO | 1:1 | 0.85 |
| Bilt | CX | 1:1 | 3.54 |
| Bilt | EK | 1:1 | 2.31 |
| Bilt | TK | 1:1 | 2.05 |
| Bilt | AS | 1:1 | 1.96 |
| Bilt | VS | 1:1 | 1.82 |
| Bilt | HYT | 1:1 | 1.45 |
| Bilt | UA | 1:1 | 1.34 |
| Bilt | EY | 1:1 | 1.24 |
| Bilt | AC | 1:1 | 1.16 |
| Bilt | BA | 1:1 | 1.06 |
| Bilt | WYN | 1:1 | 0.87 |
| Bilt | MAR | 1:1 | 0.79 |
| Bilt | IHG | 1:1 | 0.56 |
| Bilt | HIL | 1:1 | 0.51 |
Coming with more data
With 3 rounds collected, these would show noise rather than signal. Each switches on once there’s enough data.
- Unannounced devaluationsFlags value drops that no announcement explains. It needs a few months to separate a real cut from normal ups and downs.3 of 4 months · ready after Round 4
- Was this a good redemption?Enter a program, a trip type and the points you were quoted to see where that lands among every check. An early version is on the Your points page.3 of 6 months · ready after Round 6